Status of the Atlanta Regional Sales Tax Referendum

by Phillip Cherry

The Regional Sales Tax Referendum is a proposed 1-cent sales tax that would provide additional transportation funding to the Atlanta area to increase connectivity and rehabilitate infrastructure in the region. These additional dollars are needed for both expansion and maintenance, as Georgia is near the bottom of the nation in terms of per capita transportation investment. The Metro Atlanta referendum includes the counties of Fulton, Dekalb, Cobb, Gwinnett, Clayton, Fayette, Cherokee, Douglas, Henry, and Rockdale. Currently, the vote is set for July of 2012, but there have been efforts to change the voting date to November 2012 to coincide with the general election. If the referendum passes in the 2012 vote, then the tax would be levied on the aforementioned counties for a 10 year period, starting at the beginning of the first quarter following the vote.

It is conservatively estimated that the ten year, ten county tax would raise upwards of $6 billion over its lifetime. Local jurisdictions will be given 15% of the $6 billion total to go toward transportation projects of their choosing. The remaining funds will be distributed across both regional and local projects. For some projects, these funds will be used as a local match in receiving federal funding, thus further stretching the referendum tax dollars. Funds will be divided both geographically and by mode between roadway, transit, and bicycle/pedestrian projects. Those projects well into the planning and environmental assessment process are likely to receive further consideration for two reasons. First, it means that feasibility studies have already been undertaken and thus any uncertainties have been diminished. Second, it is more likely that these projects will be completed within the 10-year period, and residents will be more likely to vote on a slate of projects that will be operational within the referendum’s time frame. A regional roundtable has been formed that is tasked with developing the final list of projects for the region to be presented to voters. The roundtable must parse an unconstrained list totaling $22 billion in project costs to $6 billon slate by October 15 so as not to exceed the forecasted budget.

A myriad of challenges and difficult decisions await the committee and threaten the bill’s passage. All of the proposed projects have visible benefits, but many do not have comparable measures of effectiveness such as travel time or capacity improvements. Despite the roundtable’s best efforts, the process for which projects may be added to the constrained $6 billon list lacks objectivity, and will in the end be decided largely by politicians and not transportation officials. Due to the lack of objectivity, it is difficult to compare local projects like intersection improvements across the region, much less compare a local project with a more regional and costly effort, like the Beltline or proposed Clifton Corridor.  Other dissension stems from the fact that some of the outlying counties would not (at least directly) recoup the value of the taxes they put into the fund, because the more expensive transit projects are closer to the center of the region. A complete list of the proposed projects can be found at the Atlanta Regional Roundtable’s website: http://www.atlantaregionalroundtable.com/.

Despite all of the aforementioned challenges, the most critical issue and the reason I do not believe the referendum will pass relates to the intra-jurisdictional quarrels and distrust in the region. Local citizens likely ascertain the benefits of the tax, regardless of which projects are chosen for the unconstrained list. However, the knowledge I have gained from living here a year and my observations while interning at MARTA show the Atlanta metro area has a history of thinking not as a region, but as individual neighborhoods or cities. Residents and leaders often lack the ability to look further than the end of their block or jurisdiction for the greater good. An August 1 Atlanta Journal Constitution article details how this has put Atlanta behind other Sunbelt cities such as Dallas. Dallas has regional transportation and water resource management systems, that helped increase its employment over the past decade, while other cities lost jobs.

Those living in more ex-urban counties must realize that transportation improvements closer to the heart of Atlanta will benefit them indirectly via economic factors as well as a better connected region-wide transportation system. Many citizens that work in outlying counties such as Rockdale and Cherokee work inside the perimeter at companies that could depart to other metro areas that have made stronger efforts to provide multiple accessibility options for their employees. If these individuals cannot view Atlanta as a region and understand they benefit from transportation improvements within its core – even if they do not live or work there, then they will likely not be willing to vote for an additional 1% sales tax in this economic climate. While I certainly hope that the opposite occurs and the referendum passes for the benefit of the region, at this point I would not bet much more than a MARTA round trip that it will pass.